Modified Kigali combined staging predicts risk of mortality in HIV-infected adults in Lusaka, Zambia

AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2008 Jul;24(7):919-24. doi: 10.1089/aid.2007.0297.

Abstract

We assessed the utility of the modified Kigali combined (MKC) staging system for predicting survival in HIV-infected Zambian adults in a prospective, longitudinal, open cohort. From 1995 to 2004, HIV-discordant couples (one HIV-infected partner and one HIV-negative partner) were recruited from couples' voluntary counseling and testing centers in Lusaka, Zambia and followed at 3-month intervals. MKC stage, which incorporates clinical stage with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), hematocrit, and body mass index (BMI), was determined at enrollment. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard methods were used to calculate median survival and relative hazards. We enrolled 1479 HIV-discordant couples with a combined 7305 person-years of follow-up. Among HIV-infected participants over the 9-year study period, there were 333 confirmed deaths. The time to 50% mortality was 8.5 years with MKC stage 1 and 2 disease compared to 3.7 years with MKC stage 4 disease at enrollment. Survival rates at 3 years were 85% with MKC stage 1 and 2 disease, 74% with MKC stage 3 disease, and 51% with MKC stage 4 disease. A total of 275 HIV-negative partners seroconverted during follow-up. In comparison, survival rates at 3 years were 94% for HIV-negative participants and 92% for participants who seroconverted during follow-up. In multivariate analysis, MKC stage 4 disease (HR = 3.7, 95% CI = 2.7-5.0) remained a strong predictor of mortality. Incorporating ESR, hematocrit, and BMI with clinical staging is a powerful, low-cost tool to identify HIV-infected adults at high risk for mortality.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active
  • Blood Sedimentation
  • Body Mass Index
  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Family Characteristics
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / mortality
  • HIV Infections / prevention & control*
  • HIV-1*
  • HIV-2*
  • Hematocrit
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Probability
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Rate
  • Urban Population
  • Zambia / epidemiology