Getting a handle on how readily an AIDS vaccine might be accepted around the world and how it might affect the pandemic can help policymakers, vaccine developers and funders make informed decisions and allocate resources appropriately. IAVI helps to make the rational case for the development of AIDS vaccines by highlighting the progress made to date, scientific and otherwise, as well as by using tested systems to try to predict the uptake and impact of a future vaccine.

Although the primary purpose of AIDS vaccine research and development is to create a safe and effective vaccine, such studies can also produce collateral benefits for countries that host them, especially those in the developing world. This ripple effect can include increasing community involvement and education about HIV in and around the locations in which studies take place and improving trial capacity and technical infrastructure in countries that host trials, and helping to develop the technical skills and practical experience of staff at research centers.

IAVI has developed a model to predict how the demand for a future AIDS vaccine might be affected by its characteristics—including how effectively it protects from HIV infection, for how long, and the political, economic and social factors prevalent in the countries where it would be introduced.

In collaboration with the Futures Institute, we have modeled the impact that AIDS vaccines of varying efficacy would have on the epidemic at both a national and global level. The results are encouraging. These models predict, for instance, that an AIDS vaccine with 50% efficacy given to 30% of the population would avert 5.6 million new infections in low and middle income countries between 2015 and 2030 (roughly 24% of the infections that would otherwise occur).

Beyond that, the modeling suggests that while a vaccine’s efficacy, length of protection and price would significantly influence demand, an AIDS vaccine—even one of relatively low efficacy—could provide significant potential earnings for its maker, offering an incentive to the private sector to engage more robustly in the vaccine effort.