Impact Modeling

IAVI and the Futures Institute, with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), have developed a model that predicts the impact that preventive AIDS vaccines could have on HIV epidemics at both national and global levels. Such projections can assist policymakers, vaccine developers, advocates and funders make informed decisions and effective resource allocations. 

The model shows that a vaccine could avert millions of new HIV infections and play a crucial role in ending the AIDS pandemic, even if current targets for access to HIV prevention, treatment and care are reached before a vaccine is introduced.

IAVI’s new suite of modeling publications explores an AIDS vaccine’s potential impact in low- and middle-income countries in terms of infections averted, the specific impact on women and girls, and the potential cost-savings a vaccine could provide by reducing the number of people in need of life-saving antiretroviral treatment. IAVI and the Futures Institute also have collaborated with researchers and policymakers on country-level in Kenya, Uganda, Brazil and China.

To learn more about IAVI and the Futures Institute’s impact modeling work, visit IAVI’s policy studies database

Interactive Impact Modeling Tool
Explore the interaction of future potential preventive AIDS vaccines with existing HIV-prevention tools within an HIV epidemic representative of one of five regions. 

Click to learn about each section of the tool (click again to hide section):

1 Select region  |   2 Select baseline scenario  |   3 Select vaccine scenario 
4 Chart results  |   5 See the numbers  |   References

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