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The Potential Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of an AIDS Vaccine

IAVI and the Futures Institute, with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), have developed a model to estimate the impact that preventive AIDS vaccines could have on HIV epidemics at both national and global levels. Such projections can assist policymakers, vaccine developers, advocates and funders make informed decisions and effective resource allocations. Such modeling has shown that a vaccine could avert millions of new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths, and will be needed to end AIDS even if ambitious targets for access to HIV prevention, treatment and care are reached before a vaccine is introduced.

The IAVI/Futures Institute model is designed to align with frameworks developed by UNAIDS to determine the scope of the current global epidemic and project the future trajectory of HIV/AIDS in response to investments in available and new treatment and prevention of options. Most recently, a publication in PLoS One summarized the results of the UNAIDS Investment Framework Enhanced (IFE) that explored how scaling up existing HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention options, implementing new WHO treatment guidelines, and adding new HIV prevention technologies, including a vaccine, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PreP) and treatment-as-prevention (TasP), could reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by up to 80% by 2050.

Building on the UNAIDS IFE and in close consultation with experts in AIDS vaccine development, vaccine delivery in developing world countries, and public health from across the world, IAVI developed more-in depth assumptions to evaluate in more detail the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of an AIDS vaccine within the existing health care systems. First results were debuted at the recent HIV Research for Prevention (HIV R4P) conference in a poster, "Exploring the Impact of and Requirements for Adding a Vaccine to the Updated UNAIDS Investment Framework to End AIDS". The model shows that under reasonable assumptions, a vaccine could reduce annual infections by 78-85% by 2070 depending on how effectively other interventions have been implemented, and would be cost-effective in low-income countries under any background scenario.

IAVI and the Futures Institute also have collaborated with researchers and policymakers on models which allow exploring the impact of AIDS vaccines at country level in Kenya, Uganda, Brazil and China.

Interactive Impact Modeling Tool
This interactive tool, also based on the IAVI/Futures Institute vaccine model, allows users to explore the interaction of future potential preventive AIDS vaccines with existing HIV-prevention tools within an HIV epidemic representative of one of five regions: Southern Africa, Eastern Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.