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Estimating the Potential Impact of an AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries

Study Status:
Ongoing
Collaborators:
The Futures Institute; Makerere University Department of Public Health; Kenya National HIV/AIDS Strategic Plan and Kenya AIDS Research Coodinating Mechanism (KARSCOM); Kenya AIDS Vaccine Initiative; Brazilian Department of STD, AIDS and Viral Hepatitis; Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ); Chinese National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention (NCAIDS)


An AIDS vaccine could drastically reduce the number of new HIV infections in low- and middle-income countries. This study explores the potential epidemiological impact of a future AIDS vaccine as part of a comprehensive response to the AIDS pandemic.

 Study Description

The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, in collaboration with The Futures Institute and a number of partners in countries heavily affected by HIV/AIDS, has undertaken a series of modeling studies to explore the potential epidemiological impact of a future AIDS vaccine and to estimate the health and economic benefits that are likely to result from widespread vaccination in countries affected by HIV/AIDS.

Results from this exercise can assist policy-makers in assessing the potential impacts and benefits of an AIDS vaccine and AIDS vaccine R&D. The estimates have been revisited over time to incorporate newer epidemiological data from sources such as UNAIDS and to contextualize an HIV vaccine’s impact within other global HIV/AIDS programming strategies, such as the recent UNAIDS Investment Framework.

An AIDS vaccine impact model was built as part of the Spectrum Policy Modeling System, which has been used to explore the impact of other AIDS prevention and treatment scenarios. The model is intended to be an easy-to-use tool for researchers to explore the impact of AIDS vaccines on the pandemic by applying country-specific demographic, epidemiological, and vaccine uptake data.

Results of this global analysis confirm that including vaccines as part of a comprehensive response can make a significant impact in ending the pandemic in the coming decades. Additionally, a vaccine would not have to be 100% effective or reach 100% of at-risk populations to yield significant benefits. A vaccine that is 50% effective, given to just 30% of the population in low- and middle-income countries could reduce the number of new HIV infections in the developing world by nearly 20% in the first decade of introduction even if existing interventions were significantly scaled up.

IAVI also has worked with the Futures Institute to create an interactive web tool allowing users to explore the interaction of future potential preventive AIDS vaccines with existing HIV prevention tools within an HIV epidemic representative of one of five regions.

To learn more about this study or about the country-specific studies of vaccine impact undertaken by IAVI, click on the links provided below:

IAVI & Futures Institute Interactive Impact Modeling Tool 

The Potential Impact of an AIDS Vaccine in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (Policy Brief)
Spotlight on Women: Modeling the Impact of a Future AIDS Vaccine (Policy Note)
AIDS Vaccines: Exploring the Potential Cost/Benefit (Policy Brief)
Uganda: Estimating the Potential Impact of an AIDS Vaccine
Kenya: Estimating the Potential Impact of an AIDS Vaccine
Brazil: Estimating the Potential Impact of an AIDS Vaccine

Partner links:

The Futures Institute www.futuresinstitute.org
Makerere University Department of Public Health www.musph.ac.ug
Kenya National HIV/AIDS Strategic Plan and Kenya AIDS Research Coodinating Mechanism (KARSCOM) http://conference.nacc.or.ke
Kenya AIDS Vaccine Initiative www.kaviuon.org
Brazilian Department of STD, AIDS and Viral Hepatitis http://www.aids.gov.br
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) www.fiocruz.br
Chinese National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention (NCAIDS) http://www.chinaaids.cn/