Click to learn about each section of the tool (click again to hide section):
1 Select region |
2 Select baseline scenario |
3 Select vaccine scenario
4 Chart results |
5 See the numbers |
References
1. Select a region. HIV-related data for countries in five global regions heavily impacted by HIV/AIDS has been aggregated and scaled to five sample “countries” of 50 million people to make the regions more comparable.
- Southern Africa (hyper-epidemic)—Rates of HIV prevalence are very high and not limited to specific demographics
- Eastern Africa (generalized epidemic)—Rates of HIV prevalence are high and not limited to specific demographics
- Asia (concentrated epidemic)—HIV prevalence is high in most-at-risk populations
- Latin America (generalized epidemic)—Rates of HIV prevalence are high and not limited to specific demographics
- Eastern Europe (concentrated epidemic)—HIV prevalence is high in most-at-risk populations
IAVI has worked with partners in Uganda, Kenya and Brazil to explore the potential impact of AIDS vaccines in those specific countries. More information on those studies can be found here.
2. Select baseline scenario for access and prevention. Four scenarios of HIV programming uptake were based on available current coverage data as well as projected scale-up to levels described by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Investment Framework. The baseline projections for each included intervention are described in the following table.
Users also have the option of scaling up access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) to individuals whose CD4+ T-cell count is below 500 cells per cubic milliliter of blood, in line with research showing that earlier access to ART can significantly lower risk of HIV transmission. For more information on HIV treatment as prevention, please see AVAC: Global Advocacy for HIV Prevention’s website.
| | Hyper-epidemic | Generalized | Concentrated |
|---|
| General Population | | | |
| Mass media | 80% | 80% | 20% |
| Community mobilization | 70% | 70% | 0% |
| Counseling and testing | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Condoms | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Vulnerable Populations | | | |
| Youth in school | 100% | 100% | 30% |
| Youth out of school | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FSW outreach | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| MSM | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| IDU: Outreach | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Workplace | 50% | 50% | 0% |
| Medical Services | | | |
| Male circumcision | 60% | 60% | 0% |
| ART | 80% | 80% | 80% |
PrEP program This variable encompasses all forms of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) against HIV infection currently in development: oral, topical (microbicides), injectable PrEP and rings. For more information on PrEP and the strategies being explored for its delivery,
please see AVAC’s website.
"Start year" is the year in which PrEP would begin to be rolled out, with the specified "Coverage" being achieved five years after introduction. "Efficacy" describes the proportion of infections PrEP would avert in a given population.
3. Select a vaccine scenario. These standardized scenarios are similar to those used by IAVI in other iterations of the model. For more information on those studies and related IAVI impact modeling work, see our Modeling page.
"Year vaccinations begin" allows the user to choose when AIDS vaccines would be debuted, with the specified "% of population vaccinated" being achieved five years after introduction. "Efficacy" describes the proportion of infections a vaccine would avert in a given population. Users also can explore the results of "population given vaccine" to see how targeting populations at higher risk can have a significant impact on the number of vaccinations needed to avert an infection.(See #5 below).
4. Chart the results. This interface shows the additive impact of scaled-up HIV interventions and vaccines compared with current trends on three graphs, which can be toggled by clicking "New Infections" (for new HIV infections), “HIV Deaths” (for AIDS-related deaths) or “ART” (for total life-years on antiretroviral treatment).
5. See the numbers. This interface shows the statistical results of the modeling based on the selections in Sections 1, 2 and 3, along with a brief analysis of the number of vaccinations needed to avert one HIV infection, one AIDS-related death and one person-year of antiretroviral treatment.
Data sources/References
- The Impact of an AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries: A New Model and Preliminary Results. IAVI Policy Research Working Paper, October 2006.
- Stover et al. 2007. "The Impact of an AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries: A New Model and Initial Results." Health Affairs. Volume 26, Number 4, p. 1147.
- Schwartländer et al. 2011. "Towards an improved investment approach for an effective response to HIV/AIDS." The Lancet. June 2011.
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). 2011. A new investment framework for the global HIV response.
- Country data for this website came from demographics and health surveys (DHS), UNAIDS data, and program sources.